GPS interference along NATO borders with Russia is on the rise, according to allied officials who believe the escalating trend is a deliberate attempt by Moscow to sow a “sense of helplessness” within Western societies.
Over the past two years, daily reports of GPS interference concentrated around sensitive strategic locations have raised concerns among Western governments, transport authorities, and militaries. The rise in interference has been linked to Russia’s ongoing war on Ukraine and its increasingly confrontational stance with NATO.
Allied officials are warning that the trend is a long-term threat, with Lithuania’s Defense Ministry spokesperson telling Newsweek that the “Russian practice has, and will likely continue, to negatively affect the civilian aviation in the region.” The official in Poland also expressed similar concerns, saying that the war on their eastern border had “radically changed the system of international security” and that “elements of Russia’s hybrid influence are most visible” in the infosphere.
Officials believe that Russia’s aim is to build an atmosphere of threat and helplessness within Western societies. According to the spokesperson for Lithuania’s Defense Ministry, this is undoubtedly one of the goals that Russia is pursuing. Authorities also point to Russia’s use of jamming and spoofing interference as a defensive measure, designed to disrupt intelligence gathering and navigation systems of weapons like missiles and drones.
The small Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, situated between Lithuania and Poland, is believed to be a hub for electronic warfare activity. “Russian armed forces have a wide spectrum of military equipment dedicated for GNSS interference, including jamming and spoofing, at varying distances, duration, and intensity,” said the Lithuanian official. There are also concerns about the Kola Peninsula, a remote region in the Arctic Circle that has been described as “the crux” of Russia’s regional military capabilities and broader power projection efforts.
So far, the effects of GPS interference have been minimal, with authorities saying that it is more of a nuisance than a serious threat. According to Poland’s defense official, “the alleged interference of the GPS signal has not affected the effectiveness of the Polish air defense system.” The head of Estonia’s Consumer Protection and Technical Regulatory Authority also confirmed that GPS interference has not posed a threat to aeronavigation and air traffic.
Despite this, interference has become a daily occurrence this year, according to the TTJA, and has notably increased since Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine in February 2022. However, not all interference can be attributed to Moscow’s malice. The Polish defense official acknowledged that it is difficult to determine the source of interference, given the “very wide spectrum of potentially influencing factors.”
However, the official added that the escalation aligns with Russia’s hybrid measures to destabilize a part of Europe where its operational options are increasingly constrained due to NATO’s expansion and growing defense spending. Along with elements like disinformation and propaganda, Russia is also expanding its development of electronic warfare assets, which can be used for various types of tests and trials in the international environment.
Overall, the increase in GPS interference along NATO borders with Russia is causing concern among Western allies who believe that Moscow is deliberately trying to undermine their security. While the interference has had minimal impact so far, authorities warn that it could become a more significant issue if left unchecked.
The use of GPS interference as a defensive measure by Russia also raises questions about the escalation of tensions in the region and the potential for further destabilization.
