Britain has placed its emergency alert infrastructure on standby as international space agencies track the uncontrolled re-entry of a large Chinese rocket stage expected to plunge back through Earth’s atmosphere later today. While officials stress that the likelihood of debris reaching the UK is extremely low, the uncertainty surrounding the rocket’s descent has prompted precautionary measures.
The object in question is the upper stage of China’s Zhuque-3 rocket, launched in early December by private aerospace firm LandSpace from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center in Gansu Province.
Although the experimental rocket successfully reached orbit, its reusable booster stage—designed in the style of SpaceX’s Falcon 9—exploded during a landing attempt. Since then, the remaining upper stages and a dummy payload, consisting of a large metal tank, have been gradually losing altitude.
According to The Aerospace Corporation, the rocket is expected to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere around 12:30 GMT, though estimates vary widely, with a margin of error stretching several hours in either direction.
The European Union’s Space Surveillance and Tracking agency has offered a narrower window, predicting re-entry at approximately 10:32 GMT, plus or minus three hours. Such discrepancies highlight the inherent difficulty of predicting the descent of space debris, particularly when it re-enters at a shallow angle.
The UK government has confirmed that mobile network providers have been asked to ensure the emergency alert system is fully operational, should authorities need to warn the public about potential falling debris. A government spokesperson emphasized that this is a routine readiness check and does not mean an alert is expected. Officials also reiterated that it is “extremely unlikely” any fragments will enter UK airspace.
Experts say the rocket body, estimated to weigh around 11 tonnes and measuring up to 13 metres long, is large enough to warrant careful monitoring. Professor Jonathan McDowell of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics noted that during the predicted re-entry window, the object will pass over parts of northern Scotland, including the Inverness–Aberdeen corridor, creating a small but non-zero chance of re-entry over the UK.
Historically, most space debris burns up during atmospheric re-entry, with surviving fragments typically falling into oceans or sparsely populated regions.
While debris passes over the UK dozens of times each month, confirmed injuries from space junk remain extraordinarily rare. Still, researchers warn that as commercial launches increase, so does the cumulative risk, both to people on the ground and to global air traffic.
